Polymarket Bettors Predict 26% Chance of Zelenskyy Leaving Early

Polymarket, the world’s largest crypto-based prediction market, has seen bettors wager over $400,000 on whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will leave office before July 2025.

• Current betting odds suggest a 26% chance of an early departure.
• Speculation surged after Zelenskyy’s tense meeting with President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance at the White House.
• Trump criticized Zelenskyy for not showing gratitude to the U.S., complicating any peace deal negotiations.

“You see the hatred he’s got for Putin. That’s very tough for me to make a deal with that kind of hate,” Trump said.

Crypto Bettors Skeptical of Trump Ending Ukraine War

While Trump’s policy on Ukraine remains uncertain, Polymarket users have wagered over $21 million on whether he will end the war within three months of taking office.

• The current probability stands at just 23%, indicating skepticism.
• Following Friday’s meeting, one Polymarket user commented: “Zelenskyy should’ve thanked the American people. How hard can it be to show some gratitude?”
• A previous Polymarket bet on Biden dropping out of the 2024 race proved accurate, further increasing confidence in prediction markets.

Crypto Prediction Markets Gain Influence

Polymarket’s accuracy in forecasting events has fueled the platform’s popularity. Brian Trunzo, former VP at Polygon Labs, explained:

“Prediction markets provide financial incentives for thorough research, making them more accurate than traditional polling.”

Ukraine Considers Crypto Tax Amid Funding Shortage

With uncertainty over future U.S. military aid, Ukraine is reportedly considering a crypto tax to stabilize its war economy.

• The proposed 10% tax on crypto transactions could generate funds for Ukraine’s defense.
• Analysts say this move could dampen crypto adoption in Ukraine but may be necessary to fill the funding gap left by waning Western support.

What’s Next?

• Trump’s stance on Ukraine and Zelenskyy’s leadership remain key geopolitical uncertainties.
• Polymarket bettors will continue to track developments as new policy announcements unfold.
• The crypto tax proposal could impact Ukraine’s digital economy if implemented.

With crypto’s prediction markets shaping narratives, platforms like Polymarket are gaining traction as alternative forecasting tools.