Oil Prices Decline as Market Weighs Tariff Impact

Oil prices slipped on Friday, heading for their first monthly decline since November. Concerns over global economic growth, U.S. tariffs, and weak fuel demand are weighing on the market, outpacing supply fears.

Brent and WTI Extend Losses

• Brent crude futures (May contract) fell $0.31 (0.4%) to $73.26 per barrel.
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped $0.31 (0.4%) to $70.04 per barrel.
• March Brent contract traded at $73.69, down $0.35 (0.5%) ahead of its expiration.

Both Brent and WTI are set for their first monthly loss in three months, reflecting economic concerns and shifting supply expectations.

U.S. Tariffs Weigh on Oil Market

Oil prices remain under pressure as President Donald Trump confirmed his plan to impose:

• 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports starting March 4.
• An additional 10% duty on Chinese goods, increasing trade tensions.

“Market participants are struggling to gauge the impact of Trump’s energy policies,” said economists at Fitch’s BMI Research.

U.S. Economic Slowdown Raises Demand Fears

Recent economic data has raised fresh concerns over demand:

• U.S. jobless claims rose more than expected last week.
• Fourth-quarter GDP growth slowed, reinforcing concerns about economic weakness.

“Risk appetite is depressed by slowdown fears, tariffs, and OPEC+ supply plans,” said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore.

Supply Fears Provide Temporary Support

Despite demand concerns, oil prices gained over 2% on Thursday after Trump revoked Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela.

• The move could disrupt Venezuelan crude exports, tightening supply.
• Chevron may negotiate with PDVSA to redirect exports outside the U.S.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ is reconsidering its April supply increase, as members assess fresh U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia.

“OPEC+ is uncertain whether to proceed with supply hikes or hold output steady,” said eight industry sources.

Market Outlook – Where Next for Oil Prices?

• WTI is well-supported between $65 and $70 per barrel, based on technical charts.
• Supply concerns from Venezuela sanctions may provide short-term price support.
• Economic slowdown fears and Trump’s tariff policies remain key bearish drivers.

Until clearer supply signals emerge from OPEC+, oil prices may remain volatile.