Nvidia earnings preview draws investor attention
Nvidia is set to release its quarterly earnings on May 28, and the market is watching closely. The chipmaker is expected to post a significant year-over-year increase in both earnings and revenue.
However, analysts are increasingly cautious, and investor focus has shifted to the odds of a surprise result and its effect on Nvidia‘s stock price.
Nvidia forecast shows strong growth, but risks linger
According to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, Nvidia is expected to post earnings of $0.87 per share for the quarter ended April 2025 — up 42.6% from the same quarter last year. Revenue is projected to reach $42.71 billion, a 64% year-over-year jump.
This reflects solid demand for Nvidia’s AI and gaming chips. But markets care just as much about beating expectations as meeting them.
Nvidia’s Earnings ESP points to possible downside
The proprietary Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) shows a -5.24% reading for Nvidia, meaning the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the consensus.
Combined with Nvidia’s Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), this signals a less favorable setup for a positive surprise. Stocks with negative ESP and a mid-level Zacks Rank typically struggle to outperform earnings expectations.
Estimate trends turn slightly bearish ahead of report
In the last 30 days, Nvidia’s consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.93%. This revision suggests that covering analysts are turning slightly bearish, likely due to softening AI infrastructure demand or macroeconomic uncertainties.
Still, revisions can lag real-time developments, and Nvidia‘s management commentary will play a key role during the earnings call.
Nvidia’s surprise history favors the bulls
Despite the weaker ESP reading, Nvidia has a solid track record of beating earnings expectations. Last quarter, it posted EPS of $0.89 versus a $0.84 forecast — a 5.95% beat.
The company has outperformed consensus estimates for four straight quarters, giving bullish investors a reason to stay optimistic.
Nvidia stock performance tied to more than earnings
Even if Nvidia beats earnings estimates, broader market reactions will depend on guidance and tone. Management’s view on AI demand, chip shipments, and geopolitical risks (especially related to China) will be scrutinized.
Investor sentiment may also hinge on updates related to Saudi and UAE deals, previously announced AI partnerships, and changes in trade policy.
Bottom line — Nvidia faces a key earnings test
Nvidia is one of the most watched names in the tech sector, especially amid the AI boom. While its revenue and earnings growth remain impressive, a slightly bearish revision trend and a negative ESP reading introduce risk.
Investors should consider multiple factors — not just earnings — when deciding to buy, hold, or sell Nvidia stock before or after the May 28 report.