Gunvor Adjusts Leadership Amid Oil Market Challenges
Gunvor Group is revamping its leadership following setbacks in oil trading last year. CEO Torbjörn Törnqvist acknowledged that a bullish strategy in the North Sea failed to deliver expected returns.
The restructuring comes as the trading firm adapts to a cooling commodity cycle. Profits are still robust compared to pre-pandemic years, but the volatile spikes that benefited traders in 2022 and 2023 are subsiding.
Profits Fall but Stay Historically Strong
Gunvor’s crude oil trading still turned a profit, though the company’s second-half performance in 2024 lagged behind its first-half results.
Törnqvist said the full-year result will be among Gunvor’s top five ever. First-half profits were $417 million — down 48% from the previous year.
“It’s a reset and setting the course for the future,” he said, referring to recent executive departures and fresh hires.
A North Sea Bet That Missed the Mark
Gunvor surprised the market last summer by aggressively bidding for North Sea crude, aiming to influence the Dated Brent benchmark.
That strategy backfired. “It didn’t go according to plan,” said Törnqvist. Asked to elaborate, he added simply: “The plan was to make money.”
Despite that, Gunvor’s North American oil operations were a bright spot. The company remains one of the largest exporters of U.S. crude.
New Deals and Fresh Talent Signal a Pivot
Gunvor is replenishing talent with strategic hires like Gary Pedersen from Millennium Management, who now leads the Americas division.
Törnqvist cited a major $800 million deal in Gabon — financing Assala Energy’s purchase from Carlyle Group — as one of the year’s successes.
“Some areas have really performed well; some areas did not,” the CEO admitted.
A Cautious Outlook on Oil Prices
Törnqvist shares a bearish outlook on oil prices, saying U.S. President Donald Trump is unlikely to pursue harsh sanctions on Iran that might drive prices higher.
“If he says we are going to kill exports, I guarantee you one week from now you see $80-plus,” he said. “But he does not want $80 oil. I think he wants to see $60.”
Gas Market Will Be More Volatile Than Oil
Gunvor’s CEO expects more volatility in gas than oil going forward. In 2024, the company acquired “significant” U.S. gas production assets, though the deal remains undisclosed.
He believes global gas prices are already hitting demand in countries like Egypt and Pakistan.
Russia Exposure and the Possibility of Return
Gunvor still holds a minority stake in Russia’s Ust-Luga terminal, though it has been unable to access profits since sanctions began in 2022.
Törnqvist said the firm would return to trading Russian oil and commodities if sanctions were lifted. “If sanctions are eased… why wouldn’t we? It’s our job.”