Bitcoin Futures Basis Turns Negative for First Time Since 2023
Bitcoin futures slipped into negative territory for the first time since August 2023, following a sharp decline in Nvidia’s stock price. The drop triggered a sell-off in the cryptocurrency market, with traders hedging risks and adopting a bearish stance.
Market Sentiment Shifts to Bearish Amid Risk Aversion
The Bitcoin futures basis, which measures the difference between futures contracts and spot prices, signaled a bearish shift. A negative basis suggests traders are selling futures below spot prices, reflecting heightened risk aversion. Open interest also plummeted, with a single-day decline of 17,225 Bitcoin.
Economic Uncertainty and Tech Sell-Off Weigh on Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s decline coincided with broader market uncertainty, driven by:
- The U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate policy and its impact on liquidity.
- Potential tariffs under the Trump administration, adding economic uncertainty.
- DeepSeek’s AI disruption, which rattled the Nasdaq Composite, causing a 3.1% drop.
Bitcoin briefly fell below $98,000 before rebounding above $102,000, influenced more by macroeconomic concerns than crypto-specific developments.
Tech Earnings May Drive Further Volatility
Major tech companies, including Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple, are set to release earnings this week. Analysts warn that competition in AI and further tech sector instability could push Bitcoin lower. QCP Capital noted that these earnings could introduce additional downside risk for Bitcoin and other speculative assets.
Mixed Signals in Broader Markets
Despite the crypto sell-off, U.S. equities showed some resilience in pre-market trading:
- S&P 500 futures rose by 0.12%.
- Nasdaq futures gained 0.24%.
While Nvidia faces short-term pressure, analysts remain optimistic about its AI-driven long-term growth. However, Bitcoin’s immediate outlook remains uncertain as investors navigate economic and market turbulence.